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Eric Regehr

Principal Quantitative Ecologist

Email

eregehr@apl.washington.edu

Phone

206-685-3512

Department Affiliation

Polar Science Center

Education

B.S. Chemical Engineering, University of Kansas, 1998

Ph.D. Zoology & Physiology, University of Wyoming - Laramie, 2009

Publications

2000-present and while at APL-UW

First abundance estimate for the east Greenland polar bear subpopulation

Laidre, K.L., T.A. Marques, B. Cohen, R.G. Hansen, E.V. Regehr, M.J. Zahn, J. Aars, J. Ware, H.L. Stern, and F. Ugarte, "First abundance estimate for the east Greenland polar bear subpopulation," Endang. Species Res., 59, doi:10.3354/esr01479, 2026.

More Info

12 Mar 2026

Evaluating the demographic status of large mammals in dynamic habitats is challenging. The east Greenland (EG) polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation ranges over approximately 1.5 million km2 of sea ice and 18° of latitude along a mostly uninhabited coastline, making it the most expansive of the world's 20 polar bear subpopulations. We report on a distance-sampling aerial survey that provided the first estimate of abundance for EG polar bears. We used a density surface model (DSM) that corrected for incomplete detection on the transect line using mark-recapture methods, accounted for overall detectability via distance-sampling methods, and modeled bear density as a function of environmental covariates with a generalized additive model. Our study design was informed by Indigenous Knowledge surveys and 3 decades of polar bear movement data obtained from satellite telemetry. During March–May 2023, we flew 106.5 h on-effort over 26 survey days and sighted 84 groups of bears (108 individuals). Mean observed litter size was 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2–2.0) for cubs-of-the-year and 1.6 (95% CI = 1.3–1.8) for yearlings. Polar bear density was higher closer to land and along the continental shelf break offshore, where bathymetry deepens from 300 to 1000 m. Polar bear density was approximately 5 times lower within 50 km of subsistence hunting communities (0.06 bears 100 km-2) compared to the rest to the study area (0.31 bears 100 km-2). The best estimate of abundance for the EG subpopulation, adjusted for animals located outside the sampling area, was 2275 bears (CV = 0.27, 95% CI = 1360–3807). This estimate can be used to identify a sustainable level of subsistence harvest, manage human–bear conflicts, and monitor the effects of climate warming on EG polar bears. Our methods also provide a template for designing and conducting aerial surveys for wildlife populations inhabiting vast and remote regions.

Projecting the future of a threatened marine mammal in relation to climate warming

Regehr, E.V., L. Quakenbush, A.L. Von Duyke, J.J. Citta, and J.M. Lindsay, "Projecting the future of a threatened marine mammal in relation to climate warming," Ecol. Appl., 35, doi:10.1002/eap.70127, 2025.

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8 Dec 2025

Climate warming is expected to impact global biodiversity, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic. There is an urgent need to evaluate the demographic effects of climate warming under different greenhouse gas emission pathways to guide wildlife management and inform listing decisions under protected species legislation. We used forecasted environmental variables to drive a novel demographic model for the ringed seal (Pusa hispida), a circumpolar Arctic marine mammal and critical subsistence resource for Indigenous people. Under the most demographically plausible conditions and assumptions, the projected abundance of ringed seals in the Chukchi Sea west of Alaska, USA, changed by an average of –7% (range –25% to 4%) by 2058 and –71% (range –96% to –8%) by 2100. The choice of greenhouse gas emissions pathway was the most important determinant of population outcomes through its influence on two habitat variables, snow-on-ice depth and sea-ice area. The choice of climate model, the intrinsic population growth rate, density dependence, and polar bear predation had a moderate influence on population projections, while harvest by Alaska Natives had a small influence. Modeling results suggest that ringed seals in the Chukchi Sea can exhibit stable or increasing recruitment at average April snow-on-ice depths below 20–30 cm. Given that declining snow depth was central to listing the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, our work both represents the first quantitative investigation of future abundance for Alaskan ringed seals and is relevant to conservation assessments for the species.

Modeling movements improves capture-recapture estimates for mobile species with sparse data: Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Viscount Melville Sound

Regehr, E.V., S. Baryluk, J. Boulanger, M. Branigan, F. d'Eon-Eggertson, J. Pongracz, A. Thom, and E.S. Richardson, "Modeling movements improves capture-recapture estimates for mobile species with sparse data: Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Viscount Melville Sound," Popul. Ecol., EOR, doi:10.1002/1438-390X.12198, 2024.

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11 Oct 2024

Wildlife management requires estimates of demographic parameters that are difficult to obtain for mobile species at low densities. Biased parameter estimates often result from capture-recapture (CR) studies due to small sample sizes and unequal recapture probabilities, the latter of which can be caused by animal movements with respect to the sampling area. We developed a multistate CR model designed to minimize biases by including multiple data types (capture, harvest, natural mortality, and telemetry) and accounting for temporary emigration. We applied the model to data collected intensively from 2012 to 2014, and intermittently since the 1970s, for the Viscount Melville (VM) subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. The number of bears within the VM subpopulation boundary likely increased from an average of 145 (Bayesian 95% credible interval [CRI] [109, 221]) in 1989–1992 to 235 (95% CRI [148, 569]) in 2012–2014. Survival probability increased for all sex and age classes except adult females, for which estimates declined due to unknown reasons. Polar bear movements exhibited Markovian dependence with approximately 28% of the subpopulation located outside of the sampling area each spring. This contributed to inaccurate parameter estimates when using a simpler, single-state CR model that only included capture data. Although the interpretation of demographic status was complicated by statistical uncertainty and changes in study design, our findings suggest that—as of 2014—the VM polar bear subpopulation had likely recovered from an earlier period of overharvest, was stable, and had not exhibited detectable negative effects of climate warming.

More Publications

In The News

Polar bears of the past survived warm periods. What does that mean for the future?

Anchorage Daily News, Ned Rozell

A small population of polar bears living off Greenland and Arctic Canada increased by 1.6 times when comparing numbers from the 1990s to 2013 and 2014. Lighter sea ice might have benefited the animals because sunshine penetrates thinner ice better, which stimulates small living things. That means more food for seals, the main food of polar bears.

3 Jun 2023

UW polar bear expert appears in BBC-produced film about the Arctic

UW News, Hannah Hickey

A new production, "Arctic: Our Frozen Planet," narrated by Benedict Cumberbatch, screens May 25 and 27 at the Pacific Science Center in Seattle. Eric Regehr, a researcher at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory, appears in the film doing fieldwork on Wrangel Island, an island off the northeast coast of Russia that is home to the world’s highest concentration of polar bears.

23 May 2023

Why Russia's war in Ukraine is bad news for polar bears, too

The Washington Post, Dino Grandoni

The invasion is first and foremost a human tragedy, but it is also dire for wildlife, stalling scientific work on polar bears and other wildlife threatened with extinction. Sanctions and other policies have chilled scientific collaboration between American and Russian biologists, leading to nixed research trips, canceled conservation work, restricted funding and uncollected data related to imperiled species at risk of disappearing in the coming decades without human help.

15 Apr 2023

More News Items

Acoustics Air-Sea Interaction & Remote Sensing Center for Industrial & Medical Ultrasound Electronic & Photonic Systems Environmental & Information Systems Ocean Engineering Ocean Physics Polar Science Center
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